P&L for 09/10/10-10/10/10Football : 1
9.27P&L since last post : 19.27Football.27 markets traded. 1 red of
£76.22. I'm okay with this weekend. Decent enough green considering the lack of matches due to the upcoming international fixtures this week.
I've been threatening for a few posts to jot down my thoughts on 'strategies' for trading the football. So here they are in all their poorly formatted disjointed glory.
Let me first start with a disclaimer.
Anything I put here is my own personal opinion and I couldn't care less what anyone thinks of it. If you don't like it don't read my blog. Trolls - I won't publish your comments and I won't reply so don't waste your time. There are no get rich quick schemes. No cast iron strategy that works all the time. What works for one person might not work for another. All trading is essentially gambling. Even pre match/race trading is gambling. We try not to make it sound like that because of the negative connotations but it is. You are gambling that the market will move in the direction you want it to when you want it to by predicting what will happen in the sport. There may be less risk and more control than an outright pre-match punt but it's still gambling. We all do so at our own risk and it's no ones fault but ours when we lose.
Primarily what I do on football focuses on under x.5 goal markets. There are several methods all of them dependent on the premise that the market will descend over time when no goal is being scored.
First ten minutes.This is what I started with on the unders markets. A lot of matches will have no goals scored in the first ten minutes of a match. The simple strategy of backing unders at kick off and waiting till the tenth minute to green out, or in some cases waiting for the market to drop 10 ticks, can be very effective for a while. If you do this on every match you will almost certainly LOSE. It is always down to you to judge which match this may be effective on, where to set your exit point, and where to abandon the trade early. Should a goal be scored while your still in the market you MUST red out and take the loss. It's very tempting when a goal has been scored on a match you decided, for whatever reason, would be tradeable to declare it a fluke and wait for the market to return to your entry point so you can get out clean. In this case you will just end up taking a bigger loss. You need the discipline to take the red when it comes and not to up your stakes on the next match to try and recover your losses. I have done these things and they always end badly.
Last ten minutes.Some people like a last ten minute 1 or 2 ticks trades as the chance of another goal when a red comes is less and if you do take a red it is generally smaller than at the start of the match. approx 25% loss of stake compared to approx 40-50% at the beginning of match. Again the premise is simple enough, decide for yourself where you think there will be no goal and the market will descend and set your entry and exit/green out points. It is very tempting to let your back run to the end of the match to avoid taking the red and on many occasions it will work. However the times when it doesn't and you lose your entire stake will leave you firmly in the negative.
During the match.If you have a good feel for the flow of a match you can trade it anywhere you like. This involves multiple trades, jumping in and out to build up a large amount of green. In the majority of matches out of the 90 mins played a goal is only being scored in a few of those minutes. The rest of the time the market is dropping. Video with as little delay as possible is very useful in these circumstances as is knowledge of the teams and conditions. Always remember that a goal can come out of the blue at any time and it's advisable to take your red.
Last minute of the match.This is a high risk strategy with a high strike rate. It's imperative to have video for this as you need to know how much stoppage time has been allocated and what the tempo of the match is. As the match enters it's last minute a market that is one goal from dead ( eg. under 2.5 in a 2-0 match) will drop below 1.05 rapidly heading for 1.01. You can enter the market and get out a couple of ticks later very quickly. Within 20 seconds in a lot of cases. You are of course at risk of losing your entire stake if a last gasp goal is scored. There will also be cases where the ref will keep a match going for longer than official stoppage time. The market can stay above your exit point when this happens depending on what is happening in the match. This is once again a strategy that you must use your own judgement on. It will not work on every single match.
That's the gist of it folks. Nothing set in stone. No guarantees. These markets are dependent on a game where anything can happen and cheating is rife. Use your own judgement and enter at your own risk.
It's going to get colder this week according to the forecasts I've seen.