Sunday, 30 August 2009

29/08/09-30/08/09

P&L for 29/08/09-30/08/09

Football : 3.17

P&L since last post : 3.17

Football.

21 markets traded over this weekend. I had a very good day yesterday until the Ac Milan v Inter match where I got caught out on an after goal trade and took a £3.33 red. This type of game shows you how risky after goal trading can be as it went from 0-0 to 2-0 in 5 mins and 3-0 in 14 mins. Fortunately discipline held and I took the red. It didn't push me red for the day but only just. Thankfully I had only used a 25% stake rather than 50%. I will be using 25% stakes more often, especially on riskier games and trades. Today was a good day although I had 2 narrow escapes with goals coming seconds after I traded out.

So the US open is upon us. The top seeds have some easy enough looking first round matches I think. I was tempted to deposit £20 for a one-off-outside-of-bank back of Nadal in the winner market as he is at 8.6/8.8 just now. I know he wasn't at his top form in his recent appearances but I can see him making it to the QF's at least and if he plays well his price could shorten dramatically and could be a good trade. I'll ponder that one. 'Stay away from the WTA' will be my mantra once again.

Keep it green everybody.

Friday, 28 August 2009

27/08/09-28/08/09

P&L for 27/08/09-28/08/09

Football : 1.72

P&L since last post : 1.72

Football.

9 markets , 8 matches. Reasonable enough return. Did have a slightly narrow escape on the Bundesliga match when the goal came just after I got out.

I hope the weekend is good.

Keep it green everybody

Wednesday, 26 August 2009

25/08/09-26/08/09

P&L for 25/08/09-26/08/09

Football : 0.85

P&L since last post : 0.85

Football.

Quiet couple of days. 5 markets over 3 matches. All green is progress.


No tennis traded over the past couple of days. I have been tempted by Querry, Verdasco, and Davydenko when there matches have been on but have abstained. So of course they have been winning. LOL.

Keep it green everybody.

Monday, 24 August 2009

22/08/09-24/08/09

P&L for 22/08/09-24/08/09

Football : 3.19
Tennis : 0.38

P&L since last post : 3.57

Football.

A relatively subdued weekend in that I did not get involved in a lot of the evening matches. I had things to do and so wasn't on all day everyday. 16 markets traded over the three day period and a reasonable return considering the staking level.

Tennis.

Just the one quick 5 tick trade on the Fed v Djoko match. I didn't want to get involved for the match despite Federer doing a 6-1 in the first set.

Not going to be on much tennis this week as I can't stay up late otherwise I'd be tempted to be on Querrey tonight especially after how well he played against Roddick last week.

Keep it green everybody.

Saturday, 22 August 2009

20/08/09-21/08/09

P&L for 20/08/09-21/08/09

Football : 0.09
Tennis : -5.23

P&L since last post : -5.14

Well, haven't I gone off the rails a bit.

Football.

A single trade on the Bundesliga match on 21/08. Even this was a bad move as I did it on under 1.5 which had more movement. If a goal had come I would have been stuffed.

Tennis.

20/08

I relatively good day after the double loss of the previous two days. Federer, Murray , Djokovic, and Nadal all brought me green, although none of them were particularly dominating. I was able to scratch Davydenko after a prolonged period of possible red. In total £3.66 for the Tennis.

21/08

A foolish 2-0 back of Murray pre-match led to a loss. I was chasing a bit I suppose and the match odds price was low. I did go back on Murray match odds as the third set was in play which gave me back a small bit of my loss. A tiny green on Djoko when I decided to dump my back of him for a tick when he looked a bit iffy. Nadal once again brought me a good green and looked to be playing a little better. I foolishly ventured onto WTA and backed Jankovic. I was able to green out before it all went pear shaped but it was still the height of madness.

So the bank is greatly reduced this week due to tennis. Evaluating what I had done I can see :

Blake v Kunitsyn.

I backed blake when he had a 2 point lead on Junitsyn serve at 1.19 and when Kunitsyn held his price rose sharply. I should have been more aware of what was happening and not gone in when there was a chance of a large reversal. I should also not have held on with my fingers crossed and sacrificed my entire stake, I should have redded out.

Roddick v Querrey

I was on Roddick from the start but when it was clear he was not on top of his game I should have redded out.

Murray v Benneteau

I should not have backed 2-0 pre-match assuming that Murray would be able to take Benneteau. I should not have let it run when the match was neck and neck to 4-4 in the first set. I should have redded out. I should not have been trying to trade this match while working as I could not see a video feed due to crappy mobile broadband connection and was relying on a scoreboard.

Too much greed, impatience, and lack of discipline and it has cost me once again. Thankfully no full bank jobs were done and I stuck to my 50% staking plan although I'm thinking of reducing to 20%. When I think that my main objection to this is it will reduce my green, then I think it's a good idea. I'm not exactly coining it in right now anyway.

Lets hope the weekend is good to me. I've missed the odd opportunity already as I have been busy playing the new Wolfenstien game. I also have a computer to finish which I promised I'd have ready for Sunday.

Keep it green everybody.

Thursday, 20 August 2009

19/08/09

P&L for 19/08/09

Football : 0.08
Tennis : -14.06

P&L since last post : -13.98

Football.

2 matches traded. Got a nice green on Burnley v Man U. Got caught out on the goal in the Man City v Barcelona match. Took a 6.88 red but was able to reduce this to 1.80 over the course of the match.

Tennis.

Trades on Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal all went well. I backed Roddick for 1.23 at the start of the match but didn't get out at 1.1 when I had the chance, decided to be greedy and hold out for 1.01. Of course it didn't happen. Querry played well, Roddick did not play as well as you would think n front of the home crowd. Could have redded out when Roddick was sitting at evens for ages but didn't. Ho friggin Hum.

So my bank is 70% smaller than it was before the Blake match last night. Stakes adjusted an plod on. What else is there.

Keep it green everybody.

Tuesday, 18 August 2009

16/08/09-18/08/09

P&L for 16/08/09-18/08/09

Football : 12.73
Tennis : -21.43

P&L since last post : -8.70

Until 20 mins ago I was green £25.44.

16th.

Football.

A good day. Just 5 matches but had good returns on the premiership games, for once.

Tennis .

Murray beating Del Potro did well for me. I also backed Jankovic at the end as she beat Safina.

A great Sunday over £20 green. I was chuffed to bits.

17th

Football.

Small returns from the last matches of the evening as I'm back at work now.

Tennis.

Backed Ferrer 2-0 for a small green at the end. Also on Bodarenko nerve wrackingly as she broke only for Bartoli to break right back and hand the Bodarenko the match. Why am I getting involved in these crazy matches.

18th.

Football.

Traded 3 markets on 2 matches once again at the end of the night. Small green.

Tennis.

I had not expected to touch any tennis tonight as the matches I had wanted to trade had been scheduled for during the day. If only I had not looked. Blake v Kunitsyn. I had a quick look and saw Blake had lost the first tie break but won the second and it was neck and neck. The Blake gets 2 BP's on Kunitsyn and I back him at 1.19. I had a brief chance to lay out again at 1.09 when Kuntisyn 1st service goes into net but I'm greedy and don't take it, leave my lay at 1.01. 1st BP saved, 2nd BP saved. Deuce, ADV Kunitsyn, Deuce, ADV Blake, Deuce, ADV Kunitsyn, Game Kunitsyn. Blakes price is at evens and I'm looking at a £13 red which I know I should take and still be green for the 3 day period, but I don't. I leave it to see if Blake can hold and make it a TB. He gets first point but pisses away next three in what appear to be very careless shots. Saves 1st BP but loses GSM on a poor backhand and I've pissed away 50% of my bank. I should never have gotten involved in such a to and fro match in the first place. I should have taken the initial green. I should have red out for a 3rd of what I did lose. I should know better by now.

I had gotten carried away with my success on Sunday and was feeling good after so much red last week. Guess it got the better of me. Stakes adjusted and on we go. Discipline, DISCIPLINE!!.

Keep it green everybody.

Sunday, 16 August 2009

13/08/09 - 15/08/09

P&L for 13/08/09 - 15/08/09

Football : -6.88
Tennis : 21.11

P&L since last post : 14.23

13th -14th.

Tennis.

I was £17 green at the after these two days, almost entirely from tennis. I had backed Murray, Federer, Nadal, and Roddick with green out points set at 1.01. This was fortunate on the Federer v Tsonga match where I greened up and did not get caught out by the reversal at the end. These are little more than mug punts I know but I was watching them to red out if things did not go my way. The Nadal v Petzschner match was on 2-0 as I was unsure of Nadal and missed the match odds boat. I fell asleep during his match on Friday night and so did not get a look in, which was probably quite fortunate.

Football.

Just one trade during this period. Lazio v Osasuna and it was just a small one.

15th

Football.

Saturday started off well with green on under 2.5 and 3.5 in the Japanese match. I had built up a green on the Chelsea v Hull match only to get caught out on the first goal. I realised at that point that the stream i was watching was about 40 seconds behind. Discipline held and I redded out. I did manage a couple of after goal trades before the second bringing my red down to £10.75. Not the best start to the season. In a bit of a huff I went in on Union Berlin v Fortuna Dusseldorf Under 1.5 when it was 0-0 with about 7 mins to go. BUNDESLIGA 2!!!!. UNDER 1.5!!!!! WTF am I thinking??!!. Of course a goal comes seconds later and my denial kicks in again when I look at the £3.80 red I'm going to have to take. So I ignore it and cross my fingers. with about 2 mins to go I check back and my red is down to £0.91. Some shred of discipline kicked in and I took the red. I tried not to check the final score as it promotes bad thoughts but I couldn't help it. 1-0, of course. I did trade 4 other premiership games , 3 at the same time oooohhh!!, and managed green on them all. Then I left football alone until a quickie on a Brazilian match at the end of the night.

Tennis.

I backed Murray against Tsonga and put my green out in at 1.01, a couple of times I was tempted to green out at 1.1 as the game went back and forth in the second set but it came good in the end. I couldn't figure out the Roddick v Del Potro game and only did a couple of nail biting small trades on Potty. In retrospect I should have left it alone despite getting green. To uncertain.



So once again I got greedy on the big matches with a lot of liquidity and movement and I got bitten by it. Annoyingly a first 10 minute trade would have worked out on this match. Relying on big name tennis to save me from from my football losses is not a sound long term plan so I must be more careful.

Keep it green everybody.

Thursday, 13 August 2009

10/08/09-12/08/09

P&L for 10/08/09-12/08/09

Football : -11.83
Tennis : 3.41

P&L since last post : -8.42


Ughhh!!

Football.

10 Markets traded. The loss comes from 2 matches where I was far too greedy and undisciplined with my trading. On Bury v West Brom I had already dodged a bullet and built up a good green but kept on at it and got caught out by a goal. Same thing on Scotland v Norway, Good green built up dodged a disallowed got out before the first goal but went back in and go caught out by the second one. Pure undisciplined greed. I will endeavour to learn from this what I've failed to learn many times already.

Tennis.

My tennis trading has been decent enough this week. 7 Matches. Nadal v Ferrer was going to be my recovery match and I had nearly £7 green on Nadal, so of course Ferrer retires. Sigh!. Of course if I had been red I'd have been jumping for joy so I guess you can't have it both ways.


Not a good showing at all recently. Poor discipline and lucky flukes saving my arse on more than one occasion. I must try harder.
Back to work tomorrow after my lengthy illness. Not exactly looking forward too it and it'll interfere with my trading but needs must.

Keep it green everybody.

Monday, 10 August 2009

7/8/09-9/8/09

P&L for 07/08/09-09/08/09

Football : -4.82
Tennis : 3.78

P&L since last post : -1.04

Believe it or not I'm actually glad to see such a small red after today.

Friday(7th) and Saturday(8th)

Football.

Friday was relatively quiet only 4 matches and a modest green. Quite happy with that.
Saturday seemed to start well. I was quite chuffed to see some larger liquidity matches back and started in on the Southampton v Milwall game doing several trades and building up over a pound of green. I then got caught out by a goal and had to red out for a couple of quid loss but managed to get both under 2.5 and under 3.5 into green again. I may have been a tad reckless but still stuck to 50% rule. I did another 8 markets all green and was quite happy to have ended the day green despite having to red out initially.

Tennis.

On the Friday I had money carried over from the Soderling match the night before and did a trade on the Roddick match and two WTA matches somewhat recklessly after my determination to stay away from them but they were small single trades.
Saturday I only traded one match which was the Roddick match. I did several trades on his serves against Isner and decided to quit while I was ahead.

So at this point at the end of Saturday night I'm £6.17 green. Woohoo.

Rollercoaster Sunday(9th)

Football and Tennis.

Small trade on a dutch game to start the day. I then lost my senses by going for a start of match trade on a Bundesliga 2 game that had low liquidity. I was only asking for 4 ticks as I had got in a 2.04 and wanted out at 2.0. As the match started there was only a small amount at 2.02 and I was confident, until the suspended sign came up and stayed there. NOoooooo!. F***ing Betfair. Of course Duisburg score in the 4th minute and Betfair put the market in play in the 5th. THANKS A LOT!!!. It's impossible to know if my lay at 2.0 would have been taken in the first 3 mins or not, especially with the low liquidity, but I never got the chance to find out. Seething I redded out for £9.42 loss. I tried to put it out of my mind. I adjusted my bet stakes accordingly and proceeded to Coventry v Ipswich. I had one traded done early on the match, after kick off just to be sure, and was in on another when the goal came at 10 mins. I should not have traded that match after so big a loss because I was in a chasing mindset and had to red out for £4.51. I did snap a little later on the under 4.5 but only a 2 tick.
At this point I did decide to take an hour break have lunch and chill for a bit. I returned for the Man U v Chelsea game and did not bad on it. Several trades and a nice green. I go in on the Tottenham game and get caught by the 2nd goal. Bloody Hell!!. It's not my day. I sit there looking at it as the match carries on thinking "Red out. You have to red out. FFS RED OUT!!!". I couldn't do it, too much red. I sit there for about 8 minutes and then decide to red out. For some reason I don't hedge just stick the stake lay in. It gets taken leaving me red £9.62 on unders and £0 on overs. A second later the 3rd goal goes in and I cannot believe how incredibly fortunate I am to have dodged that red. Craziness. A small German trade takes me up to the tennis at 2000.


I was not sure about the Roddick v Del Potro game but I did get a few trades in to leave me with a good green early on and then checked out for a bit to watch a movie. I came back in the third set with no idea still who was going to win. I watched it to the tie break and when Del Potro was leading by a point I backed him at 1.21 thinking I could get a few ticks if he took the next point. Of course he did not and Roddick equalises shoving Pottys price to evens. I gnashing on my finger nails wondering if I should take the red and write off the day but I don't. Potty makes a stonking comeback so quick I don't even have time to trade out and I get the full 20 ticks. WooHoo. This brings my red for the 3 days down to £1.67. I should have left it alone at this point but my what-if brain is working overtime. Oooohh, Penetta v Stosur in the final. Stosur's shoulder is all taped up. Hmmmmm. WTF am I thinking??!!. WTA???. Chokey Penetta???. I need my head examined. In the second set after already scratching two trades on Penetta's serve as she was playing standard WTA quality I decide to lay her on Stosur serve when Pen is 5-x up and her price is low. Of course she breaks Stosur and I get a red on her. If your not shaking your head in amazement at my foolishness begin now.
I go back to the only game in town at this point, Brazilian football. Sao Paulo v Goias. 1 goal just before half time and not a lot happening. I went in over and over again for long 4 and 5 tick trades following the price down from 1.85 to 1.19. Eventually I'm £3.26 green have recovered all my Penetta loss and then some and a suspended halts and incoming back of mine which I take as a sign not to carry on.

So after taking £16.47 of red today I'm only down £1.04 for the 3 days. I'm considering myself bloody lucky to have got away with that. What an utterly foolish day of chasing and poor discipline. About the only thing I did do right was stick to my staking plan, and a couple of times I was tempted to blow that off as well. I think I had put too much pressure on myself to have a good weekend and with the loss on the German game due poor match choice and BF screw ups I was on a crazy tilt. I need to take a deep breath and not go in on so many matches and not as often. Too much haste. This horrible humidity doesn't help either.

Monday is quiet on the football and just 1st round tennis on so nothing doing there. I'll take it easy.

Keep it green everybody.

Thursday, 6 August 2009

4/08/09-6/08/09

P&L for 4/08/09-6/08/09

Football : 4.54

P&L since last post : 4.54

I was a bit busy last night that's why this is a 3 day recap instead of 2.

Football.

Pretty quiet last few days with no matches until after 1600. 11 markets traded. I did a few stupid things like not redding out on Dinamo Zagreb v Red Bull O/U 3.5 when a goal came while my trade was in-progress . Rather than red out I minimized the windows and ignored it for the last 7 minutes of the match. Classic head in the sand foolishness. The fact that no more goals were scored and I got an 8-tick profit is beside the point. Risking the 50% of bank stake to avoid a loss of 8% total is ridiculous. I still have my moments.
I also did a trade on a Norwegian Division 1 match with low liquidity that I should not have gone near but I guess I was getting bored with nothing on during the day. The market suspended just after I backed but it was a false alarm and I completed my trade.
Today I dipped back into the world of first 10 minutes trading. Cherno More v PSV were looking like likely suspects and I decided on attempting a 5 tick trade. I got my 5 tick no problems. Of course 10 ticks would have come just about 90 seconds later when big sums started coming in to back unders. I saw 16k come in to slam the price down 4 ticks. I'll have to keep an eye out for more matches where first 10 minutes trades might be possible.

So there is still more to come tonite with late football and tennis. I already have one greened up tennis trade in progress which is the first in 3 days. The late night tennis can be a bit frustrating as I don't want to stay up til 0300 waiting for matches but can't help having a niggling missing out feeling. Especially as most of the ATP matches I wanted to trade have gone the way I thought they would. I have to resist temptation to put in backs and greenouts and let them run. I must not let what little discipline I have slip away.

Keep it green everybody.

Monday, 3 August 2009

02/08/09-03/08/09

P&L for 02/08/09-03/08/09

Football : 1.16

P&L since last post : 1.16


Football.

6 markets traded on Sunday(2/8). Nothing done today. I was busy until 1900 and I looked at the German and Italian cup matches but was unable to trade either.

No tennis to be had. There are a couple of tournaments on but 1st round matches with no good opportunities.

Keep it green everybody.

Sunday, 2 August 2009

31/07/09-01/08/09

P&L for 31/07/09-01/08/09

Football : 5.15
Tennis : 0.12

P&L since last post
: 5.27


Football.

16 markets traded, some of them for multiple trades. Lucked into some big returns. On one after goal trade I gained 18 ticks, which which then hedged out to 8 ticks. Hadn't expected it to be over £5 but quite chuffed that it was.

Tennis.

Only one match traded and foolishly it was a WTA match that nearly cost me. Jankovic v Bartoli. I went in on Jankovic when she had taken a couple of points on Bartoli's serve at the start of the second but Bartoli held and the price went back up. Jankovic held her serve next and then again went into the lead on Bartoli's serve and I was lucky and got out for a 1 tick profit. Jankovic went on to lose that set in the tie break and then lose the match, so I was very lucky. I will renew my commitment to steer clear of WTA.

Still only staking 50% of bank at a time. I'm quite impressed how I've been managing to stick to that. Only 13 days till the main leagues come back.

Keep it green everybody